Buhari, IBB, or Abubakar Rimi would represent Hausa/Fulani interests. If they did, then there should have been no problem in arriving at a consensus Igbo candidate via Ohanaeze or via any other means. The proliferation of Igbo candidates smacks of political profligacy and lack of vision.  And, in reality, it will lead to the dissipation of Igbo votes and, perhaps, to more marginalization in the years ahead. As K. O. Mbadiwe would say, “the come shall come to become.”

 There were three major problems that the Igbo never deciphered and therefore, did not contemplate their sweeping implications. First, the registration of a multiplicity of parties by the Obasanjo regime’s appointed Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while seemingly democratic, was calculatedly intentional. It was a masterstroke as far as political legerdemain goes. It was the chicken spreading mound and thrashing the rubbish heap. By extrapolating political parties, INEC minimized the efficacy of the Igbo bloc-voting. It also preempted the likelihood of parties consolidating their bases along regional or ethnic lines. Those disadvantaged were the new comers – not AD and not PDP. The act was the exact opposite of Babangida’s “a-little-to-the-left and a-little-to-the-right” strategy that sought to impose a two-party system on Nigeria; a different tactic and means towards the same end.

 Second, Ndiigbo -- especially those Igbo within the PDP -- failed to see that trying to unseat Obasanjo by promoting Ekwueme was a scheme that was transparently inimical to Yoruba interests in the immediate, and adverse to Hausa/Fulani interests in the medium term. Let’s call it the North’s  unwillingness to see the Presidency reside with the South, besides and beyond the four years that they have grudgingly assigned to Obasanjo before the eventual power shift back in 2007. If this was ever in doubt, witness the trashing of PDP zoning policy by the likes of Abubakar Rimi and Umaru Shinkafi, as well as AD’s fielding of a non-presidential candidate in the person of Alfred Aisediontem. All said, Obasanjo, the political paternal son of PDP, is also the political maternal son of AD.  And to this, I may add, that all politics is local.

 Third, an Igbo presidency via another party would only have been possible through an alliance with the North, but strictly only if the Igbo candidate -- Okadigbo, Nwachukwu, Ojukwu, Nwankwo, Kalu, Agbakoba, et. al. --  signed off with the North that they will be in office for only for the one term.  (Never mind that it did not really work for PDP). That being the case, a follow-on northern Presidency of the party (APGA, NDP, APLP, UNPP, BNPP, NGP or PMP,) in say 2007 elections, would then coincide with Atiku Abubakar’s candidacy within PDP.  Checkmate and also a win-win situation for the North. Any which way, the North would produce the candidates without any meddling from the South, since the South-West and South-East would have had their turns. 

 As things stand, not only will the Igbo not get the 2004 presidency they would have lost all their requisite seniority in the Senate, with the premature and unfathomable exit of Okadigbo, Anyim, Ajaegbo, Nwobodo, Eriobunna, Nwachukwu, Enwerem, et al. from the Senate. So much, for having Igbo interests at heart. (I won’t even go into those Igbo in PDP who sold out Ekwueme.) Ndiigbo will have thus lost in the Executive and the Legislative branches of Government. And as usual, the Judiciary will remain foreclosed to them. In Johnnie Cochran’s lingo:  If you don’t wield executive or legislative powers, you can’t appoint. 

 What is at stake?  Igbo candidates, fixated on the trapping of personal power, chose to fight individual, narrow-minded, and self-promoting battles and lost the collective war.  They chose to see the trees despite the forest. No grand design, no manifesto.   So, what were the obvious permutations that should have been borne in mind?  First, the Igbo Senators who went bunkers running for an elusive presidency should have secured their leveraging legislative base.  Before embarking on the foray, they should have pushed for an amendment of their term-in-office to six years.  They were after all the lawmakers. In any case, in any real democracy, those who control the 'purse strings' control the policy. Everything else is embellishment!

 The scenario would have been that if you (Okadigbo, Nwobodo, Nwachukwu) ran for presidency in 2004 and lost, you would return to the Senate and run for reelection in 2006 a la Joe Lieberman, Al Gore’s running mate. That way if you don’t win the bride, you at least got the mistress, stayed relevant, and remained a power broker. Also, deserting in droves from the ruling PDP, for which they were mostly founding members, was the proverbial ikwo aka tielu okuko aki -- monkey work, baboon chop. Such an exodus also violated the cardinal principles of Igbo folklore called kpumbo. In the kpumbo game of hide and seek or, in this case, search and capture, the final admonishment before the searcher goes off to seek the quarry is "ebe onye no ya nosikwaa ike!" [Wherever you are, stay put!] I presume Ekwueme will stay put in PDP, but the monkey will never be off his political back. Ndiigbo, by challenging Obasanjo unwittingly, extended rather than assuage the rift caused by the Zik-Awo divergence of yesteryears. Invariably, the Igbo-Yoruba dichotomy will continue with the North playing the gallant suitor.

 Finally, those Igbo in PDP, if they fully understood Nigeria’s politics and its real-politik – which by the way is not for the fainthearted — should have understood Ojo Maduekwe’s grouse and negotiated an ironclad future run at the presidency, based on PDP’s zoning agreement. Here is the scenario: We the Igbo will support the Obasanjo-Atiku ticket in 2003 and Atiku as heir apparent, with an Igbo Vee Pee for another eight years beginning in 2007. In return, we want and demand a full commitment for an Igbo President after Atiku’s reign. This would have been a twelve-year grand design, but one both the North and South-West could have lived with. It is more importantly a plan that would protect the hard-earned power shift now in place. (Should Buhari beat Obasanjo, the Igbo would get Okadigbo as the VeePee, but would be eternally remembered as handing political power back to the North in 2003.)  Instead, we Ndiigbo chose to play spoilers by playing an ineffective, zero-sum game. What was really missing?  What was the key consideration? If the truth be fully confronted, adopting such a shambolic plan would exclude Ekwueme, Nwachukwu, Nwobodo, Ojukwu et al., who would in twelve years (2015) all be close to or well over 75 years from running then. But certainly, it would not have excluded Anyim Anyim, Nnia Nwodo, Olisa Agbakoba, Peter Odili, Dubem Onyia, Kema Chikwe, Dora Akunyili,  Julius Kpaduwa, Orji Kalu, or any other young Igbo political aspirant, who would have by then truly cut their political teeth. But in Igboland, unless you grow gray with your teeth shaking from old age – you are as a youth never given a chance at leadership – except if like some incumbent Igbo Governors you 419 it.

 So where do we stand? As I see it, the current plethora of Igbo presidential candidates notwithstanding, the best permutation that would allow the Igbo to smell Aso Rock anytime soon lies squarely with the ANPP, despite Buhari’s Sharia albatross and the pitfall of the power shift back that it would entail.  Okadigbo fully understood this, which should explain to the undiscerning and not too politically astute, why he did not walk away from the ANPP Convention and in so doing secured the Vee Pee slot.  With the Buhari-Okadigbo ticket we are looking at a four-year term (if one believes Don Etiebet assertion of agreed one-term for Buhari) then Bingo, an Igbo President. A worse case scenario would be two terms for Buhari -- then it would be Okadigbo’s turn. Cut any way, an eight-year wait is a far shorter and better wait than PDP’s twelve or an unjustifiable and indefinite wait with the other parties. So, will the Igbo support the Buhari-Okadigbo ticket or will they be fixated on the Sharia issue and APGA, which has light years to go before becoming coherent and cohesive as AD? Time will tell.  However, let the record show that as an Igbo, without any adjectival qualifications, I am not anti-APGA, despite their flawed and ineffectively ran presidential nomination process that threw up Dim Odumegwu-Ojukwu, all in the name of consensus.

 But let’s bear this other permutation in mind. The North will support Obasanjo-Atiku but would rather play first fiddle with Buhari at the helm. (Did Buhari and IBB not publicly make up?) Consummate Northern politics! Faced with such a Buhari-Okadigbo versus Obasanjo-Atiku tickets, the North will predominantly vote for Buhari-Okadigbo. The South-West will customarily vote Obasanjo-Atiku. If the Igbo vote goes predominantly either way, it will become the deciding swing vote.  If it is wasted on the several Igbo candidates or Igbo-led parties, it will be a non-issue, a washout and of no political consequence. In that case, look for Obasanjo to be returned. And Ndiigbo will wait for twelve years with PDP at the helm. Please, in those coming intervening years, let us not shame ourselves by discussing marginalization or revenue sharing with Obasanjo. Aremu can be very unforgiving when crossed!

 Chuba Okadigbo may be an errant, flawed son and much more. But he is our son nonetheless, just as Aremu is the son of the AD. Devoid of our traditional emotionalism, Okadigbo best represents the steady march of the Igbo to Aso Rock. He presently represents the best short-term strategic imperative of an Igbo Presidency. A vote for any of the other Igbo candidates, Ojukwu included, will be psychologically comforting, but a politically warped strategy. We, Ndiigbo, have so far gambled and lost – it is time to cut our losses. Also, if Obasanjo wins, watch the Senate Presidency go to a South-South candidate. No one rewards backstabbing. Certainly, not OBJ!

 As I said before, in Nigerian politics, nothing is ever what it seems to be. The die is cast. Let’s see what happens. I know that come May 2003 the invitations to the Aso Rock inaugurals will be sent out either for Obasanjo-Atiku or Buhari-Okadigbo -- not Dim Odumegwu-Ojukwu, and not Nigeria-personified Ike Nwachukwu or Jim Nwobodo. Not also by the other Igbo also-rans.

 See you at the inaugurals. Until then, keep the law, stay impartial and observe closely.

 *Hank Eso writes from Woodbridge, NJ.  Since 1982 his commentaries on Nigerian politics and global issues have appeared in The New Times (Lagos), African Profile International (New York) and The Nigerian And Africa Abroad. (New York). © Hank Eso, 19 March, 2003.  Email: hankeso@aol.com